Celta Vigo vs Alaves – Preview
Celta Vigo's underlying attacking output suggests some efficiency, with market-implied expected goals sitting at 1.31 compared to Alaves' 0.96, yet they are barely performing to expectations—flat at 0.03 over both the last ten matches and the full season. The hosts have limped through this campaign with a punishing 1W-4L-4P handicap betting record and -19.2% ROI, and injuries will compound the problem. Celta will be without the services of Borja Iglesias, Carl Starfelt, Miguel Roman and Jones El Abdellaoui through injury, while Pablo Duran, the team's leading goalscorer this season with two, is also regarded as a fitness doubt. That absence of depth in attack comes against Iago Aspas available once again.
Alaves, by contrast, are genuinely outperforming the market. They have collected 0.63 expected goals above expectation across both sample periods and converted that into a brisk 5W-3L-0P handicap record at +28.8% ROI. Alaves will be missing Facundo Garces and Mikel Rodriguez through injury, while Angel Perez is suspended following his red card last time out, which does sting their defensive depth for away travel, yet Ville Koski is back in contention and is expected to start in the back three. The Basque side have stumbled lately, but their underlying form and tactical discipline make them the more balanced proposition facing a depleted Celta side at 2.24 on the -0.5 handicap.
Preview generated using our market-implied xG model and AI-assisted analysis.
Celta Vigo
| Stat | Season | Last 10 | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.89 | 0.89 | 1.40 |
| Goals against | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.40 |
| xG | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.32 |
| xGA | 1.11 | 1.11 | 1.15 |
| vs. Market | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.83 |
| vs. Market Totals | -0.84 | -0.84 | -0.66 |
Totals: Over/under split across all of this team's matches this season.
Alaves
| Stat | Season | Last 10 | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.40 |
| Goals against | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| xG | 1.15 | 1.15 | 1.21 |
| xGA | 1.28 | 1.28 | 1.34 |
| vs. Market | 0.63 | 0.63 | 0.13 |
| vs. Market Totals | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.25 |
Totals: Over/under split across all of this team's matches this season.
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