MLB is in many ways an excellent series for active bettors. During one season, 2430 games are played in the regular season. When each game offers moneyline, handicap, and totals, there's certainly plenty to bet on. Baseball has been one of our top summer betting targets for several years. Bet Results

In this guide, we'll go through the key factors affecting game winner and run total assessment.

WHAT IS THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THE PITCHER TO THE TEAM?

In a baseball game, 9 innings are played plus possible extra innings if the game winner hasn't been determined. The normal practice is that teams have five so-called starting pitchers who begin pitching in five-game cycles. In a single game, a starting pitcher throws on average 90-100 pitches, which means approximately 5-6 innings.

The starting pitcher thus has great responsibility and influence on the team's defensive play and preventing opponent runs. So-called relief pitchers enter the game when the starting pitcher is replaced. Teams typically have seven to nine relief pitchers available in a game, each with different roles. Some are brought in earlier in the game, others only in the final innings. Some pitchers are also specialized in pitching only against left-handed hitters.

For offense, teams name 9 hitters who bat in the same order throughout the game. Additionally, both teams typically have 3-4 backup hitters who are often substituted into the game in the latter part. The best hitters are usually first in the batting order since they statistically get to bat more often.

MLB OFFERS PLENTY OF STATISTICS

Baseball, and especially MLB, is one of the most statistically tracked sports leagues in the world. A single game produces a vast amount of data. Since the game is essentially largely a duel between the pitcher and hitter, game probabilities are easier to assess than in many other sports. Below we've compiled key things that a bettor should consider when making betting decisions.

In the long run, home field advantage in MLB is about four percent (or 8%, depending on how you look at it). In a series of 100 games, the home team wins 54 games and the away team 46. However, there are differences between teams - for example, the Colorado Rockies play their games at about 1600m altitude and theoretically get at least some advantage from this. Playing at high altitude requires physical adaptation, which Colorado's players get to practice continuously.

WIND HAS HUGE IMPACT ON RUN TOTALS

Weather conditions have a significant impact on game run expectations. Since most games are played in open-air stadiums, wind strength and direction significantly affect the game. Players get a clear advantage from favorable tailwinds, while hitting becomes more difficult against headwinds.

Rain and temperature also affect run expectations. Heavy rain at worst interrupts the game. If the game has been played for 6 innings, it can be declared complete if the interruption becomes too long. For this reason, run expectations and totals lines are calculated lower in rainy weather than in dry conditions.

Above-average temperature at the playing location raises run expectations because the ball carries better in warm weather. This also makes home runs more likely. Below-average temperatures, on the other hand, work to pitchers' advantage and run expectations are lower. Colorado gets special mention here as well, since the air is thinner at high altitude and the ball carries better. Pitching is also more difficult because it's harder to get proper spin on the ball.

MOST IMPORTANT STATISTICS FOR PITCHERS AND HITTERS

Pitchers:

• ERA (Earned Run Average) - Average runs allowed per 9 innings
• WHIP (Walks + Hits per Inning Pitched) - How many batters reach base per inning
• K/9 (Strikeouts per 9 innings) - Strikeouts per 9 innings
• BB/9 (Walks per 9 innings) - Walks allowed per 9 innings
• FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) - Similar to ERA but focuses only on pitcher-controlled situations
• Ground Ball % - How often pitcher induces ground balls

Hitters:

• wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created Plus) - Comprehensive hitting statistic, 100 is league average
• OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) - Combination of getting on base and hitting power
• ISO (Isolated Power) - Measures hitter's ability to hit for extra bases
• BB% (Walk Rate) - How often hitter draws walks
• K% (Strikeout Rate) - How often hitter strikes out
• BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) - Batting average when ball is put in play

If you want a comprehensive picture of a player's ability and success and want to look at one statistic, FIP works well for pitchers. For hitters, WRC+ works well.

TRACKING PLAYER TRENDS

Tracking player form is important in betting. Here are some things to consider:

• Last 7-14 days statistics vs. season average
• Home vs. away game statistics
• Statistics vs. right/left-handed pitchers
• Injury history and recovery
• Rest time since last game

HOME STADIUM IMPACT

When comparing player statistics, one must also consider the characteristics of the player's home stadium. A pitcher whose home stadium typically sees more runs scored will likely have worse statistics than a pitcher whose home stadium typically sees fewer runs. Similarly, a hitter whose home stadium typically sees more runs scored will likely have better statistics than a hitter whose home stadium typically sees fewer runs.

Stadium-specific run averages 2020-2024

Notes on stadium characteristics:

• Coors Field (COL): By far the highest run average (11.6) due to high altitude
• Oracle Park (SF): Lowest run average (8.0), known as pitcher-friendly stadium
• Domed stadiums (Tropicana Field, Rogers Centre) offer more consistent conditions
• East Coast stadiums (Fenway Park, Camden Yards, Citizens Bank Park) are generally hitter-friendly
• West Coast stadiums (Oracle Park, Petco Park, T-Mobile Park) are typically pitcher-friendly