In many ways, MLB is a fantastic league for the active bettor. 2,430 games are played in the regular season alone. With moneyline, handicap, and totals markets on offer for every single game, there's certainly no shortage of action. For us, baseball has been one of our top betting focuses every summer for several years now. Bet Tracker

In this guide, we'll go through the key factors that affect assessing a game's winner and run total.

WHAT IS THE PITCHER'S IMPORTANCE TO THE TEAM?

A baseball game consists of 9 innings, plus any extra innings if a winner hasn't been decided. The standard practice is for a team to have five so-called starting pitchers, who rotate through the games in a five-day cycle. In a single game, a starting pitcher throws around 90-100 pitches on average, which works out to roughly 5-6 innings.

The starting pitcher therefore carries a lot of responsibility and has a major influence on the team's defensive play and on preventing the opponent from scoring runs. So-called relief pitchers step in once the starting pitcher is taken out of the game. A team typically has seven to nine relief pitchers available during a game, each with a different role. Some are brought in earlier, others only in the final innings. Some pitchers are also specialized purely against left-handed batters.

On offense, teams name 9 batters who take turns hitting in the same order throughout the game. In addition, both teams usually have 3-4 substitute batters available, who are often brought in during the latter part of the game. The best hitters are usually placed earlier in the batting order, since this statistically gives them more at-bats.

MLB OFFERS NO SHORTAGE OF STATISTICS

Baseball, and MLB in particular, is one of the most heavily statistically-tracked sports in the world. A single game produces a huge amount of data. Because the game is, in practice, largely a duel between pitcher and batter, a game's probabilities are easier to assess than in many other sports. Below, we've gathered the key things a bettor should keep in mind when making betting decisions.

Over the long run, home-field advantage in MLB is around four percent (or 8%, depending on how you look at it). In a series of 100 games, the home team would therefore win 54 games and the away team 46. There are differences between teams, however — for example, the Colorado Rockies play their games at around 1,600m altitude and, at least in theory, get a bigger advantage from this. Playing at altitude requires the body to adapt, which Colorado's players get constant practice with.

WIND HAS A HUGE IMPACT ON RUN TOTALS

Weather conditions have a big impact on a game's run expectation. Since most games are played in stadiums without a roof, wind strength and direction matter significantly. A favorable tailwind gives hitters a clear advantage, while a headwind makes scoring runs harder.

Rain and temperature also affect the run expectation. Heavy rain can, at worst, suspend the game. If 6 innings have been played, the game can be declared complete if the delay drags on too long. Because of this, the run expectation and totals line are set lower in rainy weather than in dry conditions.

Above-average temperature at the game's location raises the run expectation, since the ball carries further in warm weather. This also makes home runs more likely. Below-average temperatures, on the other hand, work in the pitchers' favor and lower the run expectation. Colorado deserves a special mention here too, since the air is thinner at altitude and the ball carries further. Pitching is also harder there, since it's more difficult to get spin on the ball.

THE MOST IMPORTANT STATS FOR PITCHERS AND BATTERS

Pitchers:

• ERA (Earned Run Average) - The pitcher's earned runs allowed, averaged over 9 innings
• WHIP (Walks + Hits per Inning Pitched) - How many batters reach base per inning
• K/9 (Strikeouts per 9 innings) - Batter strikeouts per 9 innings
• BB/9 (Walks per 9 innings) - Walks given per 9 innings
• FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) - An ERA-like stat that focuses only on outcomes the pitcher directly controls
• Ground Ball % - How often the batter hits the ball along the ground

Batters:

• wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created Plus) - An overall hitting stat, 100 is the league average
• OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) - A combination of getting on base and hitting power
• ISO (Isolated Power) - Describes a batter's ability to hit for extra bases
• BB% (Walk Rate) - How often the batter draws a walk
• K% (Strikeout Rate) - How often the batter strikes out
• BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) - Batting average when the ball is hit into play

If you want a comprehensive picture of a player's skill and performance from a single stat, FIP works well for pitchers. For batters, wRC+ works well.

Once you've formed a run expectation for both teams based on these factors, you can convert it directly into win probabilities and fair odds using our probability calculator, which supports MLB moneylines, run lines, and totals.

TRACKING PLAYER TRENDS

Tracking player form is important in betting. A few things worth keeping in mind:

• Stats from the last 7-14 days vs. season average
• Home game stats vs. away game stats
• Stats against right-/left-handed pitchers
• Injury history and recovery
• Rest time since the previous game

THE IMPACT OF THE HOME STADIUM

When comparing player stats, you also need to account for the characteristics of a player's home stadium. A pitcher whose home stadium sees more runs scored on average will likely have weaker stats than a pitcher whose home stadium sees fewer runs on average. Likewise, a batter whose home stadium sees more runs scored on average will likely have better stats than a batter whose home stadium sees fewer runs on average.

Stadium-specific run averages 2020-2024

Notes on stadium characteristics:

• Coors Field (COL): By far the highest run average (11.6), due to the high altitude
• Oracle Park (SF): The lowest run average (8.0), known as a pitcher-friendly stadium
• Covered stadiums (Tropicana Field, Rogers Centre) offer more consistent conditions
• East coast stadiums (Fenway Park, Camden Yards, Citizens Bank Park) are generally hitter-friendly
• West coast stadiums (Oracle Park, Petco Park, T-Mobile Park) are typically pitcher-friendly

FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS

What is the home-field advantage in MLB?

Over the long run, home-field advantage in MLB is around four percent. In a series of 100 games, the home team would be expected to win roughly 54 and the away team 46 — smaller than in most other major sports.

How does wind affect MLB totals?

Wind has a significant impact on run totals since most MLB games are played in stadiums without a roof. A favorable tailwind gives hitters a clear advantage, while a headwind makes scoring runs harder — worth checking before betting a game's total.

Why does Coors Field produce so many runs?

Coors Field sits at roughly 1,600 meters of altitude, where thinner air lets the ball carry farther and makes it harder for pitchers to get spin on their pitches. It's why Coors Field has by far the highest run average (11.6 runs/game) of any MLB ballpark.

What's the single best stat for evaluating an MLB pitcher or batter?

For pitchers, FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) gives the most complete single-number picture since it isolates outcomes the pitcher directly controls. For batters, wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created Plus) is the best all-in-one hitting stat, with 100 representing league average.