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Gil Vicente vs Maritimo – Preview

Liga Portugal
📅 19/09/2026 17:30

Gil Vicente face Maritimo on Saturday with their respective form trends at odds with early-season expectation. The hosts have overperformed against market projections over their last ten matches and the season as a whole, posting a +0.20 goal differential against expected goals; the visitors, by contrast, sit 0.26 goals below their market-implied average, struggling to match the 0.88 expected goals being priced into their performance. Weverson is a major doubt for this weekend after missing last Sunday's game through injury, while Mohamed Bamba remains sidelined alongside Walace dos Santos Franca and Arthur Tchaptchet. Maritimo head into the weekend with a clean bill of health and no suspension concerns. Gil Vicente's handicap bets have returned +42.9% ROI this season, whereas Maritimo's handicap record sits at −40.5%, though both sides will be looking to arrest recent losing runs heading into gameweek seven.

Preview generated using our market-implied xG model and AI-assisted analysis.

Please note that odds and lines may have changed since this analysis was written — see the stats below for current figures.
xG Home1.43
xG Away0.88
Hcp Home-0.5
Odds Home2.07
Odds Away1.85
Totals Line2.5
Over Odds2.39
Under Odds1.63
Win Probability
Gil Vicente (1) 48.4%
Draw (X) 30.1%
Maritimo (2) 21.4%
FAIR ODDS
1: 2.06
X: 3.32
2: 4.67

Gil Vicente

No historical data available.

💰 BETTING
HCP: 2W-1L-2P +2.1 units +42.9%
Totals: 1O-4U
HCP: Result of betting the handicap line for this team in every match this season.
Totals: Over/under split across all of this team's matches this season.
Gil Vicente
10-game rolling average vs. market expectation
50-5xGMatch
Gil Vicente
vs. market expectation
50-5xGMatch

Maritimo

StatSeasonLast 10Last 5
Goals1.171.171.20
Goals against1.831.832.20
xG1.071.071.01
xGA1.471.471.53
vs. Market -0.26 -0.26 -0.48
vs. Market Totals 0.46 0.46 0.86
💰 BETTING
HCP: 2W-4L-0P -2.4 units -40.5%
Totals: 4O-1U-1P
HCP: Result of betting the handicap line for this team in every match this season.
Totals: Over/under split across all of this team's matches this season.
Maritimo
10-game rolling average vs. market expectation
50-5xGMatch
Maritimo
vs. market expectation
50-5xGMatch

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