Miami Marlins vs New York Mets – Preview
Miami comes into Monday's matchup in New York carrying mixed momentum, underperforming market expectations by 0.47 runs over their last ten matches while slightly outperforming season-wide by 0.30. The Marlins have posted a solid 76-68 handicap record with a +7.5 unit profit this season, though both teams enter with a totals line set at 8 runs—a fairly restrained expectation from the market. The Mets, meanwhile, have struggled significantly: they're down 11.9 units on their handicap bets for the season with an 8.3% return-on-investment loss, compounded by their own underperformance across the board (−0.20 over the last ten, −0.45 for the season). Juan Soto is on the 10-day IL with a calf injury, a substantial loss for New York's middle order, while Mark Vientos is also sidelined on the 10-day IL with a hand injury. For Miami, Anthony Bender remains on the 15-day IL with a shin injury, limiting bullpen depth heading into the matchup.
Preview generated using our market-implied xG model and AI-assisted analysis.
Miami Marlins
| Stat | Season | Last 10 | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Runs | 4.38 | 4.90 | 5.60 |
| Runs against | 4.28 | 5.30 | 5.60 |
| xR | 4.09 | 4.37 | 4.09 |
| xRA | 4.29 | 4.30 | 4.37 |
| vs. Market | 0.30 | -0.47 | 0.29 |
| vs. Market Totals | 0.28 | 1.53 | 2.74 |
Totals: Over/under split across all of this team's matches this season.
New York Mets
| Stat | Season | Last 10 | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Runs | 4.17 | 4.60 | 6.20 |
| Runs against | 4.50 | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| xR | 4.22 | 4.04 | 4.19 |
| xRA | 4.10 | 4.04 | 3.86 |
| vs. Market | -0.45 | -0.20 | 0.47 |
| vs. Market Totals | 0.36 | 1.33 | 3.55 |
Totals: Over/under split across all of this team's matches this season.
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