Sam Houston State vs New Mexico State – Preview
Sam Houston arrives for this Thursday midweek matchup with their defence ranked 10th nationally in yards allowed per game, but their offence is in deep trouble—they've failed to score a touchdown in two straight weeks and are averaging just 11.6 points per game. New Mexico State, coming off a two-week layoff following their 22-3 loss to FIU, brings a more balanced offensive attack anchored by running back James Jones, though they too have struggled with consistency this season. The market expects a shootout of sorts, forecasting 21.21 points for Sam Houston and 24.25 for New Mexico State, but both teams' offensive woes make those projections ambitious. Sam Houston faces injuries to starting centre Brock Stooks for the season and right tackle Isaac Sohn missing the last two weeks, while New Mexico State has kicker Uvaydov, running back Burton, and tight end Lotten all listed as questionable. In the betting markets, Sam Houston have posted a modest 3-2 record against the handicap this season with +0.4 units profit, whilst New Mexico State are slightly ahead at 3-2-1 with +0.8 units. Both teams have outperformed market expectations this season—Sam Houston by 3.97 points per match and New Mexico State by 3.22—suggesting there may be value for those backing either side, though finding reliable offensive production could prove the decisive factor at 1.89 for the 3-point line.
Preview generated using our market-implied xG model and AI-assisted analysis.
Sam Houston State
| Stat | Season | Last 10 | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 20.00 | 20.00 | 20.60 |
| Points against | 25.50 | 25.50 | 26.00 |
| xP | 21.45 | 21.45 | 21.97 |
| xPA | 29.66 | 29.66 | 28.97 |
| vs. Market | 2.72 | 2.72 | 1.60 |
| vs. Market Totals | -5.61 | -5.61 | -4.33 |
Totals: Over/under split across all of this team's matches this season.
New Mexico State
| Stat | Season | Last 10 | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 24.57 | 24.57 | 20.80 |
| Points against | 25.43 | 25.43 | 26.00 |
| xP | 22.88 | 22.88 | 21.77 |
| xPA | 27.00 | 27.00 | 27.04 |
| vs. Market | 3.27 | 3.27 | 0.07 |
| vs. Market Totals | 0.12 | 0.12 | -2.01 |
Totals: Over/under split across all of this team's matches this season.
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