Dundee vs St Johnstone – Preview
Dundee and St Johnstone meet in a Tayside derby where form suggests little to separate them at the tactical level. Both sides carry identical market-implied expected goals of 1.36, but their underlying trajectories tell different stories. Dundee are significantly overperforming their pre-match expectations this season—running at 1.14 expected goals above forecast across the campaign—while St Johnstone sit marginally below, at minus 0.08. That differential may look modest on the surface, but it reflects a widening gap in execution. Dundee's handicap bets have delivered a sharp 57.1% return on investment this season, whereas St Johnstone's record sits underwater at minus 34.9%. Both teams appear to have a clean bill of health heading into Wednesday's fixture, with no significant injuries or suspensions reported for either side.
Preview generated using our market-implied xG model and AI-assisted analysis.
Dundee
| Stat | Season | Last 10 | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Goals against | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| xG | 1.19 | 1.19 | 1.19 |
| xGA | 1.71 | 1.71 | 1.71 |
| vs. Market | 0.91 | 0.91 | 0.91 |
| vs. Market Totals | -0.90 | -0.90 | -0.90 |
Totals: Over/under split across all of this team's matches this season.
St Johnstone
| Stat | Season | Last 10 | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.33 | 1.33 | 0.80 |
| Goals against | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.20 |
| xG | 1.24 | 1.24 | 1.20 |
| xGA | 1.58 | 1.58 | 1.66 |
| vs. Market | 0.17 | 0.17 | 0.05 |
| vs. Market Totals | 0.01 | 0.01 | -0.86 |
Totals: Over/under split across all of this team's matches this season.
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