Ilves vs Jaro – Preview
Ilves arrive as heavy favourites according to the expected-goals model, which prices them at 2.08 goals against Jaro's 0.97 — a gap that reflects their substantial superiority in underlying quality. However, both sides have underperformed market expectations this season. Ilves have generated -0.18 expected goals per match over their last ten games and -0.27 for the season overall, suggesting inefficiency in chance conversion. Jaro's underperformance is far more severe at -0.26 per match recently and -0.60 across the campaign, a metric that speaks to deeper structural issues. The handicap betting record tells a similar story: Ilves have posted a -13.8% return on their season-wide wagers with seven wins and eleven losses, while Jaro have recorded an even grimmer -29.5% ROI across the same sample.
Jaro will be without starting right winger Jim Myrevik and have multiple starters absent from defence and midfield due to injuries and suspensions, compounding an already bleak picture. Ilves, by contrast, appear relatively healthy heading into Tuesday's clash. The gap in expected goals sits at 1.11, and with Jaro's squad ravaged by unavailability, the hosts should have ample opportunity to impose their authority — if their season-long conversion issues do not persist.
Preview generated using our market-implied xG model and AI-assisted analysis.
Ilves
| Stat | Season | Last 10 | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.55 | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Goals against | 1.68 | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| xG | 1.55 | 1.57 | 1.65 |
| xGA | 1.42 | 1.49 | 1.46 |
| vs. Market | -0.27 | -0.18 | -0.59 |
| vs. Market Totals | 0.25 | 0.04 | -0.71 |
Totals: Over/under split across all of this team's matches this season.
Jaro
| Stat | Season | Last 10 | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.82 | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| Goals against | 2.00 | 1.70 | 2.20 |
| xG | 1.15 | 1.16 | 1.11 |
| xGA | 1.73 | 1.80 | 1.87 |
| vs. Market | -0.60 | -0.26 | -1.24 |
| vs. Market Totals | -0.06 | -0.47 | -0.59 |
Totals: Over/under split across all of this team's matches this season.
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