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Valerenga vs Aalesunds – Preview

📅 16/07/2026 20:00

Valerenga arrive here on the back of a crushing 4-0 home defeat to league leaders Tromso, a result that epitomised their defensive fragility this season with nine wins from 20 games and a goal difference of minus eight. Sitting 13th in the table, the hosts are only two points clear of the relegation playoff spot, and coach Johannes Moesgaard has implemented a 5-3-2 formation in recent matches to shore up a backline that has conceded 21 goals. However, Valerenga have won their last two home league games before the Tromso loss, and midfielder Carl Lange has been a standout performer, leading the team in shots and interceptions.

Aalesund have not won in their last four league games, though they salvaged a 2-2 draw with Molde in their most recent outing, showing they can compete with quality opponents. The visitors are in improving form and sit on an unbeaten streak, but remain level with teams in the danger zone and must continue winning to guarantee survival. Aalesund have a poor record against Valerenga and are winless in 10 meetings with the home side, while Valerenga are without midfielder Omar Bully Drammeh due to a long-term Achilles injury. Several Aalesund forwards including Marcus Reed, Ivan Djantou and Paul Ngongo Iversen are either ruled out or at serious risk of missing out.

Please note that odds and lines may have changed since this analysis was written — see the stats below for current figures.
xG Home2.10
xG Away1.27
Hcp Home-0.75
Odds Home1.77
Totals Line3
Win Probability
Valerenga (1) 55.3%
Draw (X) 23.3%
Aalesunds (2) 21.5%
FAIR ODDS
1: 1.81
X: 4.30
2: 4.66

Valerenga

StatSeasonLast 10Last 5
Goals1.461.602.40
Goals against1.692.102.00
xG1.641.661.76
xGA1.491.471.39
vs. Market -0.38 -0.68 0.03
vs. Market Totals 0.02 0.57 1.25
💰 BETTING
HCP: 5W-7L-3P -2.4 units -16.2%
Totals: 7O-7U-1P
HCP: Result of betting the handicap line for this team in every match this season.
Totals: Over/under split across all of this team's matches this season.
Valerenga
10-game rolling average vs. market expectation
50-5xGMatch
Valerenga
vs. market expectation
50-5xGMatch

Aalesunds

StatSeasonLast 10Last 5
Goals1.361.301.40
Goals against2.072.002.40
xG1.301.291.30
xGA1.862.031.93
vs. Market -0.16 0.03 -0.37
vs. Market Totals 0.26 -0.02 0.57
💰 BETTING
HCP: 5W-6L-3P -2.5 units -17.9%
Totals: 7O-6U-1P
HCP: Result of betting the handicap line for this team in every match this season.
Totals: Over/under split across all of this team's matches this season.
Aalesunds
10-game rolling average vs. market expectation
50-5xGMatch
Aalesunds
vs. market expectation
50-5xGMatch

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