Serie A Bra

Botafogo FR RJ vs Santos – Preview

📅 17/07/2026 01:30

Botafogo and Santos meet at the Estádio Nilton Santos in Rio de Janeiro on Thursday, July 16, 2026, in round 19 of the Brasileirão, a fixture both clubs will view as a direct battle to escape the lower half of the table. Botafogo begins the second half of the Campeonato Brasileiro looking to move away from the bottom of the table, sitting 12th with 22 points as they return from the World Cup break seeking to bounce back from a 2-1 defeat to Bahia in their last outing before the pause. Before the break, Botafogo went without a win in their last two league matches, drawing 1-1 away at São Paulo before losing 2-1 to Bahia. For manager Franclim Carvalho, the situation has become considerably more complicated compared to recent seasons, given that the club came close to winning both the Brasileirão and the Copa Libertadores two seasons ago before finishing second in both, then slipping to fifth place last year, and things are even worse now.

On the injury and suspension front, Botafogo will be without a key midfield piece, as coach Franclim Carvalho cannot count on midfielder Álvaro Montoro, who is suspended, while goalkeeper Léo Linck is expected to start. Going forward, the attacking burden falls heavily on one man, since without Danilo Santos, Botafogo will have Arthur Cabral as its main offensive reference, with the forward among the club's top scorers in the Série A and the player who netted the winning goals in Botafogo's last league victory, against Corinthians. Statistically, Botafogo's defense has been a genuine concern this season, and solidity at the back has not been their strong point, having conceded in 7 of their last 10 matches, though their attack has scored regularly, finding the net in 9 of their last 10 games in the competition.

Santos travel to Rio in an even more precarious position, currently viewing the match as decisive in their fight to move away from the relegation zone, sitting 15th with 21 points, just one above Vasco, the first team inside the drop zone. There has been a small shift in momentum heading into the fixture, as Santos' 2026 campaign has been marked by turmoil and difficulties finding solutions on the pitch, though before the World Cup break the team gained an important boost by beating Vitória at Vila Belmiro, a result that lifted them to 21 points and restored some confidence, with a tough trip to Rio de Janeiro to face Botafogo now awaiting them. Cuca does get some encouraging fitness news, with Gabriel Bontempo returning to full training after recovering from a pubic inflammation, but the list of unavailable players remains long: Gabigol is serving a suspension, João Schmidt was ruled out with discomfort in his right thig and Pepê Firmino is injured.

Please note that odds and lines may have changed since this analysis was written — see the stats below for current figures.
xG Home1.54
xG Away1.11
Hcp Home-0.5
Odds Home2.28
Totals Line2.5
Win Probability
Botafogo FR RJ (1) 45.5%
Draw (X) 28.6%
Santos (2) 25.9%
FAIR ODDS
1: 2.20
X: 3.50
2: 3.86

Botafogo FR RJ

StatSeasonLast 10Last 5
Goals1.831.901.60
Goals against1.781.401.20
xG1.221.331.24
xGA1.321.251.40
vs. Market 0.16 0.42 0.57
vs. Market Totals 1.07 0.72 0.16
💰 BETTING
HCP: 9W-7L-4P +2.1 units +10.4%
Totals: 15O-5U
HCP: Result of betting the handicap line for this team in every match this season.
Totals: Over/under split across all of this team's matches this season.
Botafogo FR RJ
10-game rolling average vs. market expectation
50-5xGMatch
Botafogo FR RJ
vs. market expectation
50-5xGMatch

Santos

StatSeasonLast 10Last 5
Goals1.451.601.60
Goals against1.651.702.20
xG1.281.321.50
xGA1.251.211.07
vs. Market -0.23 -0.21 -1.03
vs. Market Totals 0.57 0.77 1.23
💰 BETTING
HCP: 9W-11L-0P -1.6 units -8.1%
Totals: 13O-7U
HCP: Result of betting the handicap line for this team in every match this season.
Totals: Over/under split across all of this team's matches this season.
Santos
10-game rolling average vs. market expectation
50-5xGMatch
Santos
vs. market expectation
50-5xGMatch

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